State Partnership Program (SPP)

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in1991 and the conclusion of the Cold War, the U.S. European Command initiated the Joint Contact Team Program (JCTP) in 1992 to establish military connections with Eastern European countries that were part of the Warsaw Pact. In this program, various state national guards played a significant role, leading to the transformation of these military relationships into what is now known as the State Partnership Program (SPP) within just a year. Launched in 1993, the SPP is a program implemented by the U.S. Department of Defense through agreements with different countries. The initiation of SPP membership occurred in April 1993 when three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—signed agreements with the American states of Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, respectively. Currently, around 100 nations have entered into SPP agreements with the United States. This program is overseen by the National Guard Bureau to fulfill the goals set forth by the U.S. State Department. While primarily focused on defense partnerships, it encompasses political, economic, and social dimensions as well. The program emphasizes collaboration in areas such as emergency management, disaster response, border security, economic security, and counter-terrorism. Despite efforts from the U.S. to involve Nepal in SPP for some time, Nepal has yet to become a member.

SPP Proposal

In 2022, the U.S. extended a proposal to Nepal that outlines a broader scope for the SPP than just regular military training. The ten-point proposal includes subjects like disaster management, terrorism control, search and rescue operations, and also offers scholarships for military members from both countries to study in each other's nations. Additionally, it indicates that the U.S. would provide $500 million to be spent in areas agreed upon by both parties. If implemented, this partnership would elevate cooperation between the Nepali and U.S. militaries to a true partnership level, which differs significantly from the current collaborative efforts. Initially, the draft agreement proposed a five-year partnership, stating that it would remain active unless one party withdrew with a six-month notice. Moreover, the inclusion of joint training exercises in Nepal's high-altitude regions in Article 1.1 of the proposal highlights a sensitive geopolitical issue.

Considering that Nepal's northern border connects with China's Tibet and the complex nature of U.S.-China relations surrounding Tibet, Nepal has always been cautious about Beijing’s sensitivities regarding Tibet. Given the backdrop of intensified competition between the U.S. and China on the global stage, the prospect of U.S. and Nepali forces conducting joint training in Nepal's highlands raises concerns. On the other hand, this agreement may imply prolonged access for U.S. forces to utilize Nepali territory, military infrastructure, and civilian resources.

Article 2.1 of the proposed agreement allows U.S. National Guard personnel and contractors to use vehicles and aircraft for training and operations, including temporary maintenance and fuel services. It also mentions that the Nepali government would facilitate temporary access for National Guard troops to conduct skills training and exercises in areas controlled by local governments.

Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS)

Recognizing regional strategic economic and military partnerships as a central aspect of contemporary geopolitical dynamics, U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017. This region, possessing significant global strategic importance, is home to more than half of the world’s population, seven of the ten largest armies, and six nuclear-armed states. Furthermore, it contains nine of the world's busiest ports and handles 60% of maritime trade, along with over half of the oil trade, making it a crucial route where more than a third of commercial shipping occurs via the South China Sea. The foundation of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy lies in establishing dominance through political, economic, military, and cultural partnerships while promoting open investment, transparent agreements, and improved trade and defense capacities.

The Indo-Pacific strategy aims to ensure peace, security, prosperity, and strong sovereign nations based on respect for their peoples. Additionally, it focuses on protecting U.S. citizens, maintaining influence both domestically and internationally through American values, and establishing peace through military strength. Leading multilateral organizations and enhancing U.S. influence are also key components. The strategy aims to secure national defense, build powerful military capabilities, and maintain power balance to control specific strategic regions. This initiative is designed to promote ongoing stability, security, partnership, coordination, and prosperity among the countries in the region.

Another dimension of this strategy involves creating a highly capable and agile joint military force. Currently, there are over 400,000 U.S. military personnel deployed in the Indo-Pacific region, accompanied by two thousand combat ships and two hundred additional vessels and submarines. Guam serves as a strategic hub, hosting 5,000 troops, while Japan accommodates 54,000, South Korea has 29,000, and Australia hosts 2,500 personnel.

This strategy encompasses 36 countries within the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions, including powerful nations like China, India, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. Due to its geopolitical significance concerning conflict, peace, security, economic growth, and global trade, the U.S. has placed special emphasis on the Indo-Pacific strategy. To pursue its national interests and strategic objectives, the U.S. engages in various formal and informal activities under the Indo-Pacific command. These initiatives often include meetings with military leaders, ministers, and ambassadors from the region to discuss relevant issues.
For the past 70 years, the United States has shown significant interest in the Indo-Pacific region from both strategic and economic perspectives. This area is increasingly important due to its rapid economic growth, complex security dynamics, substantial population, and the fact that over half of the world’s oil trade occurs here, making it strategically vital on a global scale. The expansion of China's economic, military, and cultural influence poses new challenges for major powers worldwide. While the Indo-Pacific strategy is often framed in terms of economic development and prosperity, its underlying aim is to enhance military capabilities, partnerships, and coordination to maintain a balance against countries like China. This approach parallels China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and represents a strategy rooted in U.S.-led military and economic partnerships, as well as an evolved form of neo-colonial dominance.

Potential Conflicts in the Indo-Pacific Strategy

The Indo-Pacific region is home to billions of impoverished individuals, faces cycles of natural disasters, experiences ethnic, linguistic, and separatist tensions, has extensive militarization, contains disputed nuclear facilities, carries historical grievances, and harbors the world's largest Muslim population with a distinct and often hostile perspective towards Western powers. These factors contribute to the likelihood of conflicts arising from specific issues at different times.

Additionally, the adverse impacts of climate change, the projected population surge to 9 billion by 2030, and the demographic imbalance between Islamic nations and others (with growing populations in countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, contrasted with declining populations in Europe) can create tensions. Frustrations among marginalized groups, potential economic crises, rising extremist ideologies (whether nationalist, religious, or sectarian), violent activities, arms production, nuclear arms races, human and wildlife trafficking, internet-driven illicit activities, currency manipulation, the development and use of biological weapons, unjust appropriation of natural resources, and scarcity of essential resources like water will all contribute to potential conflict in this region.

SPP and the Indo-Pacific Strategy

Although the Security Partnership Program (SPP) does not explicitly appear to be part of the Indo-Pacific strategy, its goals suggest that SPP primarily aims to fulfill the objectives of the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). The IPS clearly outlines goals such as developing new concepts for military operations and expanding joint military exercises with allied countries throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The draft agreement proposed by the U.S. to Nepal in 2022 includes provisions for U.S. troop deployment and infrastructure development in Nepal, as well as conducting joint military exercises in high-altitude areas, which aligns closely with IPS objectives. Although discussions about the SPP took place before the IPS was initiated, the current context allows us to view the SPP as related to the IPS based on its intended goals.

Military Cooperation in Nepal

Despite not being a member of any organized international military institution, the Nepalese Army regularly collaborates with the Indian, Chinese, and U.S. armies. Annually, the Nepalese Army conducts military exercises with Chinese and Indian forces both within Nepal and abroad. Current statistics indicate that around 40 soldiers from China and 250 from India come to Nepal each year for joint exercises, and similarly, Nepalese soldiers also participate in exercises in neighboring countries. The U.S. Army also engages in regular training programs with a smaller number of Nepalese soldiers, focusing on disaster management, counter-terrorism, and search-and-rescue operations.

Steps Nepal Should Take

While it is natural for Americans to pursue broad and long-term partnerships based on their interests, Nepal must consider its own context and sensitivities when making decisions. Given that the SPP and Indo-Pacific Strategy could potentially invite internal and geopolitical conflicts, it would be more beneficial for Nepal to explore alternative ways to enhance necessary military cooperation with the U.S. that align with national interests, rather than adhering strictly to these frameworks.

As the world's foremost military power, the U.S. continuously seeks military alliances and long-term partnerships with various countries, especially amid intense competition with China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Though boosting military partnerships in this area might hold strategic importance, from Nepal's standpoint, it seems unnecessary to enter into an alliance with any military power given that Nepalese officers already benefit from educational and training opportunities with institutions in India, the U.S., the U.K., and China.

Currently,

there appears to be no strategic rivalry between India and the U.S., as both countries have begun engaging in military cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. The strategic coalition known as "Quad," consisting of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, is strengthening ties. Therefore, if Nepal were to sign the SPP with the U.S., it might not significantly affect India but could certainly become a sensitive issue for China. China has shown disquiet regarding Nepal's acceptance of the $500 million MCC grant from the U.S. for transmission lines and road upgrades, and a similar concern may arise if Nepal follows the SPP program, particularly concerning military training in border regions. It is critical for Nepal to be mindful of how this could lead to increased skepticism and reactive behavior from China. Moreover, to maintain political stability and unity in light of potential foreign policy imbalances, it is essential for Nepal to embrace the spirit of non-alignment outlined in its constitution and adopt a foreign policy that is acceptable to all parties involved.